COVID-19 in Africa and Russia

Even in the event of a pandemic, it is normal for some geographical areas to be reached more slowly by the wave of infections. However, Russia and Africa are no less linked to China than other countries (such as Japan, South Korea and the United States) that are now grappling with high levels of EU transmission of the new coronavirus. What are the reasons why limited COVID-19 cases are occurring in those regions?

The first reason that comes to mind - and also the most dangerous - is the lack of testing of suspicious cases, or the lack of transparency in reporting them. In many countries, only citizens with a history of travel in the worst affected areas, or those with already severe symptoms, are subjected to tampons. This leads to an underestimation  of the cases of contagion intended to prolong the time of the fight against the pandemic.

In some countries, there is a lack of resources to tackle large-scale testing campaigns; others fear the economic repercussions associated with reporting cases (such as the contraction of tourism) or do not want to draw the world's attention to health systems unprepared for the impact of COVID-19. This lack of transparency risks creating other areas where the new coronavirus will continue to proliferate even when we have left the most critical phase.

A second reason could be the geographical factor. Most cases are recorded today above the Tropic of Cancer. Only 1.29% of global cases are concentrated in tropical or southern hemisphere countries. This may be a reflection of more poor ties with China, or rather of the type of climate, but it is also possible that other infections spread in these geographical areas will mask COVID-19 infections, mistaken for other diseases.

If the cause were limited contacts with China (which does not seem plausible), then even in these areas the cases should increase in the next two weeks, brought by Europe. If it depends on the climate, we should see a change in the situation with summer (ours) and southern winter; if, finally, other infections (or drugs already taken to stem them) have to do with them, the number of new cases should remain small.