Plan for Kosovo independence

Following the press you could think that the future of Kosovo is a mystery. Will it be independent, somehow remain part of Serbia, or be divided? Will its status be decided by the end of the year and if not, when? You might conclude nothing was clear and everything was left to play for.
In fact, more has been decided about the future than ordinary Serbs and Albanians realise. Several matters are clear.
Neither the Serbs who want to stop Kosovo's Albanian majority asking independence nor the Albanians who demand it will be happy.
Furthermore, the way the situation develops over the next year remains fraught with risks. Interviews with Serbian and Albanian insiders and diplomatic sources have revealed it is now possible to predict the outline of future developments in Kosovo.
The future international mission will be similar to the model used in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1995.
As for the resolution of Kosovo's final status, that is now likely to be delayed until next March. This will follow a weak UN resolution that does not mention the word "independence".Following this, Kosovo's parliament is expected to declare independence, after which some countries will recognise the new state. Others, such as Russia and Greece, will probably not start with.
The Kosovo government will not have any authority in those northern districts where Serbian government institutions will continue to operate, however.
As various countries recognise the new state, the Serbian police in the north, who today form part of the Kosovo Police Service, are expected to start taking orders from local Serbian authorities instead.
The exact details of the plan of the Kosovo status will be presented, by negotiator Martti Ahtisaari, to the UN by the end of the year.

EU Accession for Western Balkans

Croatia was the first country of the region to gain candidate status and start accession talks. But in spite of its ambitions to join the Union in 2009, its progress report finds that short-term priorities set have been only partially addressed. Judicial and administrative reforms are singled out as particularly problematic, along with widespread corruption.
Macedonia became a candidate for EU membership last December and hopes to open accession talks in 2007. But the European Commission (EC) does not believe it is ready, concluding in its report that the “pace of reforms has slowed down in 2006, and the country needs to step up its efforts”.
Serbia’s report applauds its achievement of macroeconomic stability via privatisation and foreign direct investment, but finds organised crime remains a serious problem. The EC will warn Serbia once more that failure to fully cooperate with the Hague tribunal remains a key condition for resuming talks on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, the first step towards EU integration.
Albania needs to focus on implementation of its SAA, which will enter into force next month. Its EC report makes plain that a good track record in implementing the agreement signed last June will be essential, “before considering any future step towards EU integration”. Albania’s priorities will remain political, judicial and economic reforms, as well as the fight against corruption and organised crime.
Montenegro, in its first progress report since gaining independence earlier this year, is found to have made some advances in tackling corruption. But the EC wants to see this widespread problem dealt with at the overall legal and institutional level, which still “presents loopholes which allow for corruption and limit the capacity of the state to effectively prevent and prosecute corruption”.
The Commission’s findings in Bosnia and Herzegovina are disappointing. It reports that progress in the troubled state towards meeting political criteria has continued at a slower pace and that key political priorities set out in its European Partnership have been “only partially addressed”.
Kosovo’s territorial limbo presents a particular challenge to the EC, which is set to report that a future status settlement needs to be clear politically, as well as legally. “The Kosovo status question is sui generis and hence sets no precedent”, reads the draft progress report, which otherwise finds very serious problems in the United Nations-administered province in terms of organised crime and its influence on various socio-economic sectors and politics.
While this year’s progress reports present a sobering picture of the Balkan transition, the EC admits that its overall enlargement strategy, saying ‘stop for now’ to potential members, is also a response to the negative feeling of EU citizens towards further expansion of the soon 27-nation bloc.

Delay to the announcement of Kosovo's final status

On October 9, Martti Ahtisaari, the UN special envoy for Kosovo, admitted no agreed solution was in sight in ongoing talks on final status.
In fact, the gap is widening, as the Albanian majority clamours for independence as soon as possible, while Serbs up the stakes, using their constitution as a diplomatic weapon.
On September 30, Serbia's parliament narrowed the chances of future compromise by adopting a draft constitution that describes Kosovo as an indivisible part of the republic's territory.
At the same time, Serb officials have put pressure on the international community not to make any pronouncement on Kosovo's final status before Serbia's next parliamentary elections, expected in December.
Belgrade foreseen that an announcement of final status will be postponed until next year.
Though politicians in Kosovo continue to insist final status question will be resolved this year, with some predicting that frustration may spill over into violence. But many political analysts admit this looks unlikely.
Negotiations on final status opened in Vienna in February under Ahtisaari's auspices, six years after the international community took over administration of the territory from Serbia.
But the talks failed to agree on any substantial points.
The so-called Contact Group of big powers on Kosovo has authorised Ahtisaari to prepare a document on final status, in the meantime urging him to continue negotiations on the "technical" issues.
In the absence of wider agreement, this document is to contain Ahtisaari's personal opinion on the status question, after which a solution may be imposed on both sides.

RECONCILIATION OF THE BALKANS IS AN AIM OF THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL?

The Hague tribunal was established in 1993 with the aim of bringing to justice those responsible for the horrors that was sweeping through the Balkans at the start of the decade. Bosnia and Croatia were both still submerged in violence at the time, and there was a sense that something needed to be done in the evidence of widespread, systematic ethnic cleansing.

Today, the violence is over but the Balkans remains very much divided.Bosnia’s state system, which emerged from the peace accords that brought an end to the war there, splits the country into two ethnically-defined entities, the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska. At the same time, the federal government in Sarajevo is busy suing neighbouring Serbia for its role in the Bosnian war, in a case in which billions of dollars in reparations payments could be at stake.

Serbia, for its part, has been blocked from closer relations with the European Union over its apparent reluctance to square up to the Hague court’s the former Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic, who along with indicted ex-Bosnian Serb political leader Radovan Karadzic, are still regarded by a significant proportion of Serbia’s population as heroes.

Amid all this, it is widely hoped that the ICTY have also a role to play beyond simply dispensing criminal justice: to reconcile the peoples of the Balkans with their violent recent history.

Political and economic cooperation between Serbia and Croatia is improving after war for independence.

Recently Croatia's authorities joined Serbian president Boris Tadic for a celebration of the 150th anniversary of Tesla's birth, the scientist born in the village of Smiljani , in Croatia 's Lika region. That meeting is a signal of renewed relations between Croatia and Serbia.
The two countries relations reached boiling point so many times that the future can only bring about a long period of gradual cooling off.
In fact, political ties between Zagreb and Belgrade have been warming steadily since Croatia 's war for independence from the former Yugoslavia ended ten years ago.
Today the two states have already established a high level of official cooperation. Citizens of both countries can travel across their borders without visas. As a result, Croatia 's Adriatic coast has again become a popular destination for Serbian holidaymakers - those who can afford the greatly increased prices.
The Croatia’s relations are now better with Serbia than they are with Slovenia, it is probably because in peace time they were always closer to the Serbs and because Croats dislike Slovenes. There is an ongoing dispute between the two Adriatic powers (Croatia and Slovenia) over their frontiers in the waters off the coast of the region of Istria .
Croatia and Serbia have rebuilt respectable economic ties since the war. Croatia's trade with Serbia has more than doubled over the past two years, with exports soaring from 172 million US dollars in 2003 to 400 dollars million last year and imports recording similar growth levels.
On July 21, the Croatian Prime minister Ivo Sanader and his Serbian opposite number, Vojislav Kostunica, has met to open a new border crossing in Bajakovo. The opening follows the reconstruction and completion of Croatia 's section of the Zagreb-Belgrade motorway, which was halted by the war.

Macedonia: new coalition government lead by Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE)

Macedonians handed power to the right-wing VMRO DPMNE in the elections held on July 5th, seen as largely fair and democratic. The VMRO DMPNE leader, Nikola Gruevski, promised to revive the impoverished economy and fight corruption.
But Gruevski may face difficulties ahead in carrying out his programme, due to the fact that he would not enjoy a clear majority in the 120-seat parliament, meaning the party will require coalition partners.
Political analysts are divided over who will be the new government's partner from among the country's large Albanian community. Most agree the new coalition will also be more fragile than previous governments.
The State Election Commission report that only 56.15 per cent of the 1.7 million voters turned out: VMRO DPMNE won 32.46 per cent of cast votes, against 23.31 per cent for the incumbent Social Democrats, SDSM. The New Socials Democrats, NSDP, a splinter party from the SDSM, took 6.1 per cent, while VMRO Narodna, led by the former prime minister, Ljupco Georgievski, gained 6.12 per cent.
Among Albanian parties, the party of former rebels in the 2001 insurgency, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, won 12.24 per cent, while their opponents, the Democratic Party of Albanians, DPA, took 7.5 per cent.
A major question is whether VMRO DPMNE will stick to its previous Albanian partner, the DPA, or offer an alliance to the DUI, which won far more Albanian votes and has been the partner of the Social Democrats over the past four years.
However, VMRO DPMNE will still need another Macedonian partner if it is to have a stable coalition.
The main candidates for such a coalition are the VMRO NP party of former hard line nationalist Ljupco Georgievski and the NSDP, a splinter leftist party of former Social Democrat Tito Petkovski.
VMRO DPMNE was now entering a long period of tough negotiations to form a government.

Albania on the journey towards European Union.

Albania officially signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement on June 12, which is the most important success in the country's long journey towards European Union membership since it began in 1992.
The event marked the end of a 15-year , marred by political and economical problems, and opened the start of a new process that will end when the country will become member of the EU.
The long awaited step has left Albanians relieved and delighted, but conscious of the need for Tirana to work hard in implementing the agreement.
Olli Rehn, the EU Enlargement Commissioner, said:" Brussels welcomed Albania 's progress in reforms, including the fight against corruption and organised crime, but noted the country still faced difficult challenges. The SAA indeed provides a solid framework for Albania to address these challenges and for the EU to support it doing so".
It is advice that Albania 's usually quarrelsome political parties have followed in this instance. In Luxembourg , opposition officials stood shoulder to shoulder with government officials.
Most people got a chance to share in the festive mood. Fireworks displays and a large concert ended the day in Tirana, whose streets were lined with EU and Albanian flags. Celebrations in Tirana are considered important, because it had taken long time to sign the agreement and the event has reassured Albanians that things are moving in the right direction.
Negotiations between Albania and the EU started in January 2003 but then stalled and the deadline for completion was postponed several times.
Most analysts agree Albania stands little chance of joining the EU in the next ten years, a belief reinforced by Rehn's statement the week before the signing, which said that after Bulgaria and Romania , no other countries were likely to join before the end of the decade.

Serbia: new deadline for Stabilization and Association Agreement.

The Serbian process for SAA (Stabilization and Association Agreement), to joint European Union, was recently stopped due to Serbia failure to extradite General Ratko Mladic to the Hague war crimes tribunal.
The proposed SAA would have granted Serbia free trade without any barriers regarding customs or quantity after a six-year transition period and with due respect for general trade regulations.
EU has already taken unilateral action to help Serbia in other areas. These measures concern financial cooperation, support in the CARDS programme (which provides assistance to South-Eastern European countries intending to take part in the SAA process), loans from the European Investment Bank, macro-financial support for the Serbian budget and Serbia's inclusion in so-called "internal community programmes", such as scientific and technical cooperation, study programmes and other related issues.
In any case the SAA would have affected Serbia's economic prospects over the longer term: lower the cost of imports, boost trade with the EU, attract foreign investors and generally make the Serbian economy and market more competitive.
However many sectors of Serbia's economy remain very vulnerable, or "sensitive", to foreign competition. These sectors include the chemical industry, leather and footwear manufacturers, furniture makers, transport, the metal and electrical industries and others.
In the meantime, Serbia has drawn up an ambitious platform for the SAA talks with the EU, based on the government's recently adopted "strategy for integration with the EU", aimed at creating the conditions for joining the Community by 2012.
But now what are the consequences of the EU decision to interrupt talks for the integration of Serbia in the Community?
The short-term delay of the SAA talks and an extended deadline for their completion would not cause major negative consequences to Serbia's trade.
But it would affect the overall economic situation in the "neighbourhood", and especially foreign investors.
Over a longer term, the failure of the SAA talks would jeopardise the government's plans to entice substantially bigger foreign investments in 2006 and in the following years, as envisaged by the recently adopted strategy.
A major derailment of the SAA talks would weigh heavily on the pace and composition of Serbia's economic reforms, which essentially depend on the country's continuing integration into Europe.

A new State in the Western Balkans

Preliminary results from Montenegro's independence poll, has determined more than 55 per cent of voters opted for separation from Serbia, exceeding the threshold set by the European Union.
Franisek Lipka, head of the Republican Commission, which oversaw the referendum, on Monday 22nd May, said 55.4 per cent of those who partecipate in Sunday's referendum voted for independence and 44.6 voted against.
Around 25,000 votes remained to be counted, though it is not expected the remaining votes significantly affect the final result.
Diplomatic sources also confirmed that. They said independence would be a severe blow to the Serbian government which had desperately hoped the independence poll would fail and that the fragile state union linking Serbia and Montenegro would survive.
If Montenegro does now proclaim its independence, as seems more than likely, it will mark the final phase of the disintegration of the former Jugoslavian Federation.
But another question is still open: later this year a decision will be reached on the final status of Kosovo, a Serbian province that has been an international protectorate since 1999.

Referendum on 21st May in Montenegro

The state union of Serbia and Montenegro was formed in March 2002 after Djukanovic - under a lot of pressure from the European Union - reluctantly postponed any referendum on independence for three years. This deadline is due to expire on May 21, when Montenegrin voters will decide the future status of the republic.
As part of a compromise deal reached with the two political camps, Brussels has decreed that more than 55 per cent of voters will have to back independence before any dissolution of the state union can take place.
While most analysts believe that the outcome of the independence referendum will largely depend on voter turnout, the most recent surveys seem to favour the unionists.
To succeed in the referendum, some watchers believe that Djukanovic will have to secure 2.6 per cent more of the vote than he has managed in the past. Some circles close to the opposition maintain that he could miss the mark by up to nine per cent.
The expectations are that the pro-independence coalition and the opposition bloc will fight over undecided voters, whose number has dropped from 22 to 12 per cent of the electorate.
Analysts believe that opposition leaders will attempt to win votes by playing on fears that independence from Serbia might encourage the republic's Albanian minority to follow in the footsteps of similar groups in Kosovo and Macedonia, whose attempts to ensure greater rights and more territory have led to conflicts.
For the time being, the opposition camp is convinced its campaign will succeed.

The difficult road of Serbia and Montenegro to Euro-Atlantic integration

The persistent strength of the nationalism in the Union continues to compromise the reform process in Serbia and Montenegro, and leaves minorities intimidated and overlooked.
The status of Kosovo threatens increased tensions in South Serbia, whose majority Albanian population wants the region taken into consideration in the negotiation process. Also, relations between Bosniak and Serbian communities are under strain in Sandzak, a majority-Muslim area straddling Serbia and Montenegro. If the referendum for division of the Union in two States will succeed, the region of Sandzak will be cut in half.

The northern province of Vojvodina, long held up as an example of inter-ethnic harmony, has seen in recent times frequent confrontations involving ethnic Hungarians, Croats and Serbs. Roma continue to face widespread discrimination throughout Serbia and Montenegro Union.
The more general exclusion of minorities is reflected in the Serbian parliament, where no minority party has managed to secure representation. The handful of minority MPs belong to mainstream parties, which do not prioritise minority issues.
Serbian radical and nationalist groups are increasingly active in universities. Their doctrine combines a return to the values of the Serbian Orthodox Church, with animosity towards non-Serbian ethnic groups.
Serbia and Montenegro will have difficulty achieving full Euro-Atlantic integration in such an environment.

Export is crucial for Kossovo.

As Kosovo enters the final status talks in Vienna, that Albanians hope will end in independence, concern is focusing increasingly on what the two million or habitants will live on in future. Though local officials claim Kosovo has the potential to export many items, such as coal and wine, in practice it barely exports anything, placing a question mark over its long term economic viability. Goods export is decreasing and the decline has not yet reached its conclusion.

UNMIK, which handles the economy, said, "Given its natural resources, Kosovo could export minerals competitively, such as coal, lead, zinc,nickel and magnesium. It also has the potential for large-scaleproduction and export of electricity.With its young and abundant labour force, Kosovo could also potentially produce textiles and footwear. But Kosovo should adopt policies that encourage investment into new types of activities".

For the moment these remain dreams rather than reality and even the most optimistic local economists know that any revival will be a long-term project.

Muhamet Mustafa, head of Riinvest, a non-profit research and policy development institute, agreed that Kosovo's export potential was not a lost cause. "The goods we exported in the past, such as lead, electricity and wine, are a potential sector for revival after privatisation and technological updates," he said."Small and medium-sized enterprises could lead the way in kick-starting exports, as they had already proven their expertise in fields such as fruit juice and other food stuffs" he added. But other experts warn that there will be no easy revival of theterritory's former industries, such as wine production.

Moreover, Kosovo's pre-war industries did not have to compete in the European market but lived off sales to Yugoslavia, of which Kosovo was then a part. Kujtim Dobruna, director of the Vienna-based Economic Initiative for Kosovo, points out that Kosovo has not even reached first base in the business of certification - an essential requirement for any exporter to the European Union. Kosovo producers have to concentrate on building up weak production capacity and fill the gap in the domestic market before trying to venture abroad. As far as western markets are concerned, the main obstacle ist he lack of knowledge among local entrepreneurs, while the government offers them only limited support

Changes in the Army of the Union Serbia and Montenegro

The former Jugoslavian Army (VJ)was renamed the Army of Serbia and Montenegro, VSCG, after the signing of the StateUnion Constitutional Charter on March 14, 2002. With Pavkovic gone, the first genuine reforms in the military took place under Boris Tadic, who became the state union's defence minister in March 2003.
The army has downsized in personnel and facilities. Surplusweapons were destroyed, and tactical and technical reforms enacted. Tadic's reforms aimed to cement civilian oversight of the army,with the creation of new mechanisms to ensure civilian control and democratic accountability. The State Union Ministerial Council, consisting of the two republics' presidents, the president of the state union and defence minister, assumed the role of supreme commander, while the general staff was subordinated to the ministry of defence, headed by a civilian. Parliament now exercised clear supervision of the work of the defence ministry and the army by parliamentary committee, while a separate commission was set up to monitor military intelligence. However, since 2003 the reforms have run into the sand, defeated by Montenegro's indifference, which has rendered further efforts pointless. The increasingly unclear relationship between the two republics has opened up new room for political manoeuvring within the army, especially by conservative forces opposed to cooperation with The Hague tribunal. They are leading the action to block the passage of laws aimed at further regulating control of the armed forces and enforcing transparency in the army budget.

Adriatic Chart Countries and NATO

American officials said the three countries had made goodprogress towards meeting NATO standards.But Nicholas Burns, the State Department's third most senior official, added that they needed to do more to strengthen democracy and fight corruption.
Burns added that NATO knows Albania, Croatia and Macedonia want to join as soon as possible, but said the alliance had not set adefinite date for them to become members.NATO officials have regularly dodged questions about whether 2008 was a firm target for the three countries to join thealliance. NATO's Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, inJanuary restated that the door remains open for new members, but he refused to discuss possible entry dates.
NATO officials point out that membership is not important solelyin providing military security but in cementing a member state'soverall political and social stability. Membership obliges states to respect political and economic standards, including free and fair elections and the rule of law, and to combat organised crime and corruption and build up government structures underpinned by viable tax and customsrevenues. Measured against those criteria, NATO officials admit Tirana still has some work to do. The country has made progress on the military side, for example, but has not yet transformed the armed forces from a communist-style conscript army to a professional force, which can be harmonised with NATO.
In 2008 the NATO Summit will be held and Albania expects an invitation to membership.What Albania needs to do to join NATO has been spelled out on many occasions and the Albanians have been given a fair amount of assistance to achieve those ends. Albania needed to work harder on the rule of law and combating corruption, in particular, to show it is really capable of assuming the responsibilities of NATO membership.Many people in Albania do not seem to understand that this [NATO membership] entails responsibilities as well as a protective umbrella. However, the foreign ministers of Albania, Croatia and Macedonia said in Washington that they had fully grasped this point. Neven Mimica, chair of the Croatian parliament's integration commission, said in Tirana earlier this month that it was still realistic to hope all three could join in 2008. NATO membership was a milestone on the way to meeting another major goal for the three countries, namely membership of the EU.

Milosevic indictment and death

Slobodan Milosevic was not only the most notorious official of the wars in the former Yugoslavia, but also the only top Serbianor Yugoslav political and military leader to be indicted by theInternational Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) for crimes carried out in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1991 to 1995.
This decision had more to do with politics than justice: it would appear that Del Ponte found the resistance to the ICTY of Serbia's post-Milosevic regime - too tough to risk a further round of indictments of topofficials.
This had nothing to do with an absence of available evidence.
Kadijevic, Adzic, Jovic, Kostic and others could all have been indicted on the basis of their command responsibility for crimes carried out by their JNA subordinates at Vukovar and Dubrovnik, indictments for which already existed. Indeed, while Del Ponte was ready to indict the Croatian Army'schief of staff, Janko Bobetko, for crimes carried out by his subordinates at the Medak Pocket, and to indict the commander ofthe Bosnian Army, Rasim Delic, for crimes carried out by mujahedin fighters in Central Bosnia - in both cases on thebasis of command responsibility - she was unwilling to indict the top JNA commanders and members of the rump Yugoslav presidency on the same basis. She skewed her indictments in favour of the aggressors who conquered large areas of Croatia and Bosnia, and at the expense of those defending their countries from the aggression.