Following the press you could think that the future of Kosovo is a mystery. Will it be independent, somehow remain part of Serbia, or be divided? Will its status be decided by the end of the year and if not, when? You might conclude nothing was clear and everything was left to play for.
In fact, more has been decided about the future than ordinary Serbs and Albanians realise. Several matters are clear.
Neither the Serbs who want to stop Kosovo's Albanian majority asking independence nor the Albanians who demand it will be happy.
Furthermore, the way the situation develops over the next year remains fraught with risks. Interviews with Serbian and Albanian insiders and diplomatic sources have revealed it is now possible to predict the outline of future developments in Kosovo.
The future international mission will be similar to the model used in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1995.
As for the resolution of Kosovo's final status, that is now likely to be delayed until next March. This will follow a weak UN resolution that does not mention the word "independence".Following this, Kosovo's parliament is expected to declare independence, after which some countries will recognise the new state. Others, such as Russia and Greece, will probably not start with.
The Kosovo government will not have any authority in those northern districts where Serbian government institutions will continue to operate, however.
As various countries recognise the new state, the Serbian police in the north, who today form part of the Kosovo Police Service, are expected to start taking orders from local Serbian authorities instead.
The exact details of the plan of the Kosovo status will be presented, by negotiator Martti Ahtisaari, to the UN by the end of the year.
In fact, more has been decided about the future than ordinary Serbs and Albanians realise. Several matters are clear.
Neither the Serbs who want to stop Kosovo's Albanian majority asking independence nor the Albanians who demand it will be happy.
Furthermore, the way the situation develops over the next year remains fraught with risks. Interviews with Serbian and Albanian insiders and diplomatic sources have revealed it is now possible to predict the outline of future developments in Kosovo.
The future international mission will be similar to the model used in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1995.
As for the resolution of Kosovo's final status, that is now likely to be delayed until next March. This will follow a weak UN resolution that does not mention the word "independence".Following this, Kosovo's parliament is expected to declare independence, after which some countries will recognise the new state. Others, such as Russia and Greece, will probably not start with.
The Kosovo government will not have any authority in those northern districts where Serbian government institutions will continue to operate, however.
As various countries recognise the new state, the Serbian police in the north, who today form part of the Kosovo Police Service, are expected to start taking orders from local Serbian authorities instead.
The exact details of the plan of the Kosovo status will be presented, by negotiator Martti Ahtisaari, to the UN by the end of the year.
