16 May 2007

Presidential Change in France: new foreign policy

In the wake of his impressive electoral victory, President Nicholas Sarkozy of France will now face the challenge of keeping his campaign promises to carry out reform at home and to elaborate a new foreign policy. Sarkozy has considered the importance to attach to the European Union and in the meantime has reached out, once again, to the United States. The Middle East, in general, and Israel, in particular, are known to be on Sarkozy’s agenda.
Franco-Israeli relations have undergone many upheavals in the past. Sarkozy’s election has now raised expectations of a dramatic improvement in relations between the two countries; many in Israel have taken note of Sarkozy’s Jewish roots (his Jewish grandfather immigrated to France from Greece). However, while some improvement is indeed likely to happen, that hardly means that the new President will adopt a significant pro-Israel posture.
There is no doubt that President Sarkozy is markedly different from his predecessors.
With respect to the Israeli-Palestinian issue, Sarkozy has expressed full support for Israel’s security while attaching great importance to the creation of the Palestinian state with the 1967 lines.
Concerning Lebanon and Syria, the new President shows little no signs of being bound to traditional French constraints. So if there is further convergence of French and American approaches to the Iranian nuclear question their understanding of the American dilemma in Iraq and their overall reading of the Middle Eastern strategic map, France’s desire to be an active partner in the Middle Eastern peace process could well elicit greater responsiveness by both the United States and Israel. The struggle against terrorism could also be an issue on which France and Israel might cooperate more closely although here, too, a really significant upgrading of ties would require inclusion of the United States as the third leg in a triangular relationship.
Finally, Sarkozy’s effort to breathe new life into the French economy could provide an important stimulus to enhanced technological and industrial cooperation between France and Israel. All these elements underpin the assumption of greater understanding and strategic convergence between the two countries.