The state union of Serbia and Montenegro was formed in March 2002 after Djukanovic - under a lot of pressure from the European Union - reluctantly postponed any referendum on independence for three years. This deadline is due to expire on May 21, when Montenegrin voters will decide the future status of the republic.
As part of a compromise deal reached with the two political camps, Brussels has decreed that more than 55 per cent of voters will have to back independence before any dissolution of the state union can take place.
While most analysts believe that the outcome of the independence referendum will largely depend on voter turnout, the most recent surveys seem to favour the unionists.
To succeed in the referendum, some watchers believe that Djukanovic will have to secure 2.6 per cent more of the vote than he has managed in the past. Some circles close to the opposition maintain that he could miss the mark by up to nine per cent.
The expectations are that the pro-independence coalition and the opposition bloc will fight over undecided voters, whose number has dropped from 22 to 12 per cent of the electorate.
Analysts believe that opposition leaders will attempt to win votes by playing on fears that independence from Serbia might encourage the republic's Albanian minority to follow in the footsteps of similar groups in Kosovo and Macedonia, whose attempts to ensure greater rights and more territory have led to conflicts.
For the time being, the opposition camp is convinced its campaign will succeed.
As part of a compromise deal reached with the two political camps, Brussels has decreed that more than 55 per cent of voters will have to back independence before any dissolution of the state union can take place.
While most analysts believe that the outcome of the independence referendum will largely depend on voter turnout, the most recent surveys seem to favour the unionists.
To succeed in the referendum, some watchers believe that Djukanovic will have to secure 2.6 per cent more of the vote than he has managed in the past. Some circles close to the opposition maintain that he could miss the mark by up to nine per cent.
The expectations are that the pro-independence coalition and the opposition bloc will fight over undecided voters, whose number has dropped from 22 to 12 per cent of the electorate.
Analysts believe that opposition leaders will attempt to win votes by playing on fears that independence from Serbia might encourage the republic's Albanian minority to follow in the footsteps of similar groups in Kosovo and Macedonia, whose attempts to ensure greater rights and more territory have led to conflicts.
For the time being, the opposition camp is convinced its campaign will succeed.
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